The S&P 500 Index ( $SPX ) ( SPY Today has seen an increase of 0.64% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. $DOWI ) ( DIA ) has risen by 0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ( $IUXX ) ( QQQ ) has increased by 1.49%. The June E-mini S&P futures ( ESM25 ) have increased by +0.60%, and the June E-mini Nasdaq futures ( NQM25 ) are up +1.24%.
Today’s stock indices are showing moderate gains, primarily driven by strong performance in mega-cap tech companies and semiconductor manufacturers. Additionally, airline shares are rising following Delta Air Lines’ release of stronger-than-predicted quarterly financial results.
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Stock gains are capped as U.S. counter-tariffs come into effect. These tariffs have triggered a loss of faith in the dollar, leading investors to offload dollar-denominated assets. Additionally, they've raised worries about stagflation and driven up bond yields; notably, the 10-year Treasury note yield hit a two-month peak at 4.511% today. Futures for stock indices continued to fall further once the trade dispute intensified following China’s response with an 84% tariff hike on American products. In currency markets, the yuan fell to its lowest level in 17 years compared to the dollar due to this latest round of tariff actions.
Today, the US escalated trade tensions with China by increasing tariffs by an additional 50%, raising the overall tariff rate on Chinese imports to 104%. In response, China swiftly hit back by applying 84% tariffs on American goods starting this Thursday. Additionally, the European Union countered the new US tariffs by introducing 25% duties on $21 billion worth of US exports such as soybeans, farm produce, poultry items, and motorcycles.
Today, the US reciprocal tariffs came into effect for 60 nations. The duties on imports from the European Union (EU) have increased by 20%, raising the overall tariffs on the EU to 39%. Additionally, Japan will now face a 24% reciprocal tariff, pushing the total tariffs imposed on Japanese goods up to 46%.
Today, remarks made by Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kashkari had a negative effect on both stocks and bonds. He stated, “The threshold for altering the federal funds rate in either direction has become higher because of tariffs,” adding that the Fed is now less inclined to reduce interest rates despite potential economic downturns, owing to the inflationary effects of tariffs.
In the week ending April 4, US MBA mortgage applications increased by 20.0%, with the purchase mortgage index climbing by 9.2% and the refinance index surging by 35.3%. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped by 9 basis points to reach a five-and-a-half-month low of 6.61%, down from 6.70% in the previous week.
Over the last month, stocks have faced significant challenges because of concerns that U.S. tariffs might slow down economic progress and hurt company profits. On March 4th, President Trump introduced a 25% tariff on products coming from Canada and Mexico, doubling the previous rate on items from China from 10% to 20%. Additionally, on Wednesday, President Trump approved a new measure imposing a 25% tax on imported automobiles starting immediately; this would later extend to cover car components manufactured abroad by early next month. According to Mr. Trump, these duties are permanent with no room for negotiations regarding exemptions. As of Saturday, an initial 10% standard duty has come into play affecting most countries engaged in trade with the U.S.
The market is currently pricing in a 52% probability of a -25 basis point interest rate reduction following the FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7, which represents an increase from the previous estimate of 30%.
This week’s market focus will center around U.S. trade policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries due to the imposed tariffs. Today, we anticipate the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings held on March 18th and 19th. On Thursday, the projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is anticipated to decline slightly to an increase of 2.6% year-over-year (y/y), down from February's figure of 2.8%. Similarly, core inflation as measured by the March CPI excluding food and energy items is forecasted to decrease marginally to a yearly rate of 3.0%, compared with 3.1% in February. On Friday, data concerning the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand goods in March suggest a slight uptick to an annual growth rate of 3.3%, up from February’s 3.2%. Additionally, when adjusting for fluctuations in food and energy prices, the March PPI is predicted to advance further to reach an annualized pace of 3.6%, surpassing February’s reading of 3.4%. Lastly, the preliminary estimate indicates that the April survey conducted by the University of Michigan regarding the American public’s confidence about their economic situation may drop to a score of 54.0 points, marking a dip from the previous month’s value of 57.0 points.
The Q1 earnings reporting season kicks off this Friday with major U.S. banks releasing their figures. Data gathered by Bloomberg Intelligence indicates that the market expects a YoY increase of +6.7% in Q1 earnings for the S&P 500, which marks a decline from the initial prediction of +11.1% made back in early November. Additionally, full-year 2025 corporate profits for the S&P 500 are anticipated to rise by +9.4%, a drop from the earlier estimate of +12.5% set at the start of January.
Today, international stock markets show varied performance. The Euro Stoxx 50 has dropped significantly by -3.01%, whereas China’s Shanghai Composite Index finished higher with an increase of +1.31%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 concluded lower with a sharp decline of -3.93%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes ( ZNM2 5) Today’s drop stands at 26 ticks. The yield on the 10-year T-note has increased by 8.7 basis points to reach 4.380%. This morning, June T-notes fell to their lowest point in one-and-a-half months, with the 10-year T-note yield climbing to a peak of 4.511% over the same period. Worries about U.S. tariffs potentially leading to stagflation and preventing the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates continue to put pressure on T-notes. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has undermined trust in the dollar, causing international investors to divest themselves of dollar-denominated assets like Treasuries. Furthermore, upcoming supply factors pose challenges for T-notes; specifically, the Treasury plans to sell $39 billion worth of 10-year notes later today as part of an overall issuance totaling $119 billion this week.
Today’s European bond yields show varied movements. The 10-year German Bund yield has decreased by -4.1 basis points to stand at 2.590%. In contrast, the 10-year UK Gilt yield reached a peak over the last one-and-a-half weeks, increasing by +15.1 basis points to reach 4.756%, which is notably higher than before.
ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau stated that the central bank ought to reduce interest rates "in the near future," citing US tariff actions and their impact on global markets as supportive of this decision.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn stated, "The justification for further reductions in interest rates at the April meeting has become significantly more robust when considering both inflation and economic expansion as part of an overall evaluation."
A council member of the European Central Bank, Holzmann, stated that the ECB ought to wait until uncertainties surrounding global trade, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, dissipate before contemplating additional reductions in interest rates.
Swaps indicate a 100% probability of a -25 basis point interest rate reduction by the ECB during their April 17 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
The shares of The Magnificent Seven are climbing today, offering backing to the overall market. Tesla ( TSLA Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has seen an increase of over 5%. NVDA ) has surged over 4% higher as well. Additionally, Apple ( AAPL ) has risen over 3%+, and Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) have risen by over 2%. Additionally, Meta Platforms ( META ) and Alphabet ( GOOGL ) have increased by over 1% each.
Pharmaceutical stocks and drug makers are retreating today after President Trump said the US plans to announce "a major tariff" on the sector soon. As a result, AstraZeneca Plc ( AZN ) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Merck & Co ( MRK ) has dropped over 2%, leading decliners within the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Additionally, Pfizer ( PFE ), Bristol-Myers Squibb ( BMY ), Eli Lilly ( LLY ), Amgen ( AMGN ), AbbVie ( ABBV ), Biogen ( BIIB ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN ), and Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ) have dropped over 2%
Semiconductor companies are rising today, providing support for the overall market. Broadcom ( AVGO ), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) AMD ), ASML Holding NV ( ASML ), and ARM Holdings PLC ( ARM ) have increased by over 3%. Additionally, ON Semiconductor ( ON ), Marvell Technology ( MRVL ), GlobalFoundries ( GFS ), Analog Devices ( ADI ), and KLA Corporation ( KLAC ) have increased by over 2%
Airlines' stock prices are increasing today, with Delta Air Lines leading the way with a surge of +5% ( DAL ) led gainers in the S&P 500 following the release of its Q1 adjusted earnings per share at 46 cents, surpassing analysts' expectations of 39 cents. Additionally, United Airlines Holdings ( UAL ), Southwest Airlines ( LUV ), and Alaska Airlines Group ( ALK ) have increased by over 3%
Home construction companies are declining today following an increase in the 10-year Treasury note yield to a level not seen in one and a half months, which negatively impacts homebuying demand. Consequently, shares of PulteGroup ( PHM ), DR Horton ( DHI ), Lennar ( LEN ), and Toll Brothers ( TOL ) have dropped over 3%
Energy companies and service providers are declining today as the cost of WTI crude oil dropped over 3%, reaching a four-year low. Exxon Mobil ( XOM ), Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ), and Valero Energy ( VLO ) have dropped over 2%. Additionally, Diamondback Energy ( FANG ), Devon Energy ( DVN ), Chevron ( CVX and Marathon Petroleum ( MPC ) have dropped over 1%
Cal-Maine Foods ( CALM ) has dropped over 2% following the release of Q3 earnings per share (EPS) at $10.38, which falls short of the expected $10.91 consensus.
Peabody Energy ( BTU ) is up more than +12% after President Trump signed an executive order to expand the mining and use of coal in the US.
Gold mining shares are rising today as the cost of gold has surged by over 3%. AngloGold Ashanti Plc ( AU ) has risen over 9%, and Newmont ( NEM ) has risen over 4%++.
Earnings Reports (4/9/2025)
Constellation Brands Inc (STZ), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), Movado Group Inc (MOV), Neogen Corporation (NEOG), PriceSmart Inc (PSMT), Pure Cycle Corp (PCYO), Richardson Electronics Ltd/Uni (RELL), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL).
Upon the release date, Rich Asplund did not hold (directly or indirectly) any stakes in the securities mentioned in this article. This piece contains only informational content and data. Please refer to the Massima Disclosure Policy for additional details. here .
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